Bear case
$8.43Implied value per share
- Enterprise value
- $943.02m
- Common equity
- $843.02m
One business.
Three possibilities.
Bear / Base / Bull. Explore what changes the valuation—and what doesn't.
USD millionsFinancial amounts and diluted shares are in millions. Share prices are dollars. These cases express assumptions, not probabilities or confidence intervals.
Illustrative examples—not company forecasts. Replace the inputs with your own.
The range of possibilities
Your scenario comparison
Case labels are not assigned probabilities. Values depend on the assumptions entered.
Base case
$20.71Implied value per share
- Enterprise value
- $2,170.84m
- Common equity
- $2,070.84m
Bull case
$40.91Implied value per share
- Enterprise value
- $4,191.48m
- Common equity
- $4,091.48m
What changed?
Highlighted rows differ between cases. All percentages below apply every forecast year; terminal growth applies only after the forecast.
| Assumption | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual revenue growth (%) | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| EBIT margin (%) | 16 | 20 | 24 |
| Cash tax rate (%) | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| D&A / revenue (%) | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Capex / revenue (%) | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| NWC / revenue (%) | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| WACC (%) | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Terminal growth (%) | 2 | 2.5 | 3 |
Bear case: inspect the cash flows
PV of forecast cash flows $325.84m + PV of terminal value $617.18m = enterprise value $943.02m. Terminal value at the forecast horizon: $1,087.69m.
| Year | Revenue | EBIT | NOPAT | D&A | Capex | Δ NWC | FCFF | PV of FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,040 | 166.4 | 124.8 | 41.6 | 72.8 | 24.8 | 68.8 | 61.43 |
| 2 | 1,081.6 | 173.06 | 129.79 | 43.26 | 75.71 | 4.99 | 92.35 | 73.62 |
| 3 | 1,124.86 | 179.98 | 134.98 | 44.99 | 78.74 | 5.19 | 96.05 | 68.36 |
| 4 | 1,169.86 | 187.18 | 140.38 | 46.79 | 81.89 | 5.4 | 99.89 | 63.48 |
| 5 | 1,216.65 | 194.66 | 146 | 48.67 | 85.17 | 5.62 | 103.88 | 58.95 |
Base case: inspect the cash flows
PV of forecast cash flows $580.33m + PV of terminal value $1,590.51m = enterprise value $2,170.84m. Terminal value at the forecast horizon: $2,561.53m.
| Year | Revenue | EBIT | NOPAT | D&A | Capex | Δ NWC | FCFF | PV of FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,080 | 216 | 162 | 43.2 | 64.8 | 8 | 132.4 | 120.36 |
| 2 | 1,166.4 | 233.28 | 174.96 | 46.66 | 69.98 | 8.64 | 142.99 | 118.18 |
| 3 | 1,259.71 | 251.94 | 188.96 | 50.39 | 75.58 | 9.33 | 154.43 | 116.03 |
| 4 | 1,360.49 | 272.1 | 204.07 | 54.42 | 81.63 | 10.08 | 166.79 | 113.92 |
| 5 | 1,469.33 | 293.87 | 220.4 | 58.77 | 88.16 | 10.88 | 180.13 | 111.85 |
Bull case: inspect the cash flows
PV of forecast cash flows $894.63m + PV of terminal value $3,296.85m = enterprise value $4,191.48m. Terminal value at the forecast horizon: $5,072.61m.
| Year | Revenue | EBIT | NOPAT | D&A | Capex | Δ NWC | FCFF | PV of FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,120 | 268.8 | 201.6 | 44.8 | 56 | -10.4 | 200.8 | 184.22 |
| 2 | 1,254.4 | 301.06 | 225.79 | 50.18 | 62.72 | 10.75 | 202.5 | 170.44 |
| 3 | 1,404.93 | 337.18 | 252.89 | 56.2 | 70.25 | 12.04 | 226.8 | 175.13 |
| 4 | 1,573.52 | 377.64 | 283.23 | 62.94 | 78.68 | 13.49 | 254.01 | 179.95 |
| 5 | 1,762.34 | 422.96 | 317.22 | 70.49 | 88.12 | 15.11 | 284.49 | 184.9 |
How the comparison works
All three cases use the same Rust discounted cash flow engine. Revenue grows at each case's constant annual rate. EBIT margin is after D&A. Unlevered free cash flow = EBIT − cash taxes + D&A − capital expenditures − change in operating NWC. Tax rates apply to positive EBIT only; no loss tax credits or loss carryforwards are modeled.
WACC discounts annual cash flows at year-end. Perpetual growth recalculates Year N+1 cash flow using terminal growth and the final operating percentages; growth must be below WACC and terminal cash flow must be positive. Alternatively, terminal value is final-year EBITDA multiplied by the entered exit multiple.
Enterprise value plus excess cash and non-operating assets, less debt, preferred equity, and minority interest, gives common equity value. Divide by diluted shares for per-share value. Loss-making cases and negative equity are not clamped to zero. Case names remain yours even if their values are out of order.
This is an operating-company model. Terminal reinvestment must support your long-term growth assumption. Financial institutions, changing capital structures, stock-based compensation, and future dilution are not modeled separately. The full DCF builder includes methodology references and year-specific forecasts.